Narrowing the spread in CMIP5 model projections of air-sea CO2 fluxes

Large spread appears in the projection of air-sea CO2 fluxes using the latest simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Here, two methods are applied to narrow this spread in 13 CMIP5 models. One method involves model selection based on the ability of models to reproduce the observed air-sea CO2 fluxes from 1980 to 2005. The other method involves constrained estimation based on the strong relationship between the historical and future air-sea CO2 fluxes. The estimated spread of the projected air-sea CO2 fluxes is effectively reduced by using these two approaches. These two approaches also show great agreement in the global ocean and three regional oceans of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the North Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean, including the average state and evolution characteristics. Based on the projections of the two approaches, the global ocean carbon uptake will increase in the first half of the 21st century then remain relatively stable and is projected to be 3.68-4.57 PgC/yr at the end of 21st century. The projections indicate that the increase in the CO2 uptake by the oceans will cease at the year of approximately 2070.